HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY
™
eVENT Hurricane Ophelia
Information from NHC Advisory 31A, 8:00 AM EDT Friday September 30, 2011 Ophelia has rapidly intensified into a category 2 hurricane. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Saturday.
Intensity Measures
Position & Heading
Landfall Forecast (NHC)
Max Sustained Wind Speed:
105 mph (category 2)
Position Relative to Land:
665 miles SSE of Bermuda
Min Central Pressure:
970 mb
Coordinates:
22.9, 62.7 W
Trop. Storm Force Winds (39+ mph):
175 miles from the center
Bearing/Speed:
NNW or 345 degrees at 9 mph
Est. Time & Region:
n/a
Est. Max Sustained Wind Speed:
n/a
Forecast Summary • Within 48 hours, there is an 89% chance Ophelia will remain a hurricane (74+ mph winds), an 11% chance Ophelia will weaken to a tropical storm (39-73 mph winds) and less than a 1% chance Ophelia will weaken to a tropical depression (winds below 39 mph) or dissipate. • The windfield map – based on the BAMM 6:00 UTC forecast (below right) – shows that this model has forecast the storm’s peak winds at category 2 hurricane strength (96-110 mph winds). The BAMM – one of many models used by NOAA – has been statistically identified as the current “best performing” model for Hurricane Ophelia by Kinetic Analysis Corp. Forecast tracks for all current models (All Fcst Tracks) are shown on the map (in pale gray) to illustrate the uncertainty in Ophelia’s forecast track. • Tropical storm force winds are possible on Bermuda starting Saturday afternoon. The NHC estimates that within the next three days Bermuda has a 40% chance of experiencing weak tropical storm force winds (39-58 mph), a 10% chance of experiencing strong tropical storm force winds (58-73 mph) and a 2% chance of experiencing hurricane force winds (74+ mph). In addition, large swells created by Ophelia will cause hazardous surf conditions along Bermuda’s south shore beaches and rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches are expected on Bermuda.
Forecast Track for Hurricane Ophelia (National Hurricane Center)
Forecast Windfield & Rain Footprint for Hurricane Ophelia (Based on BAMM as of 6:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp. CA CA
Montreal Montreal Ottawa Ottawa
10-04
US US
New New York
10-03
Philadelphia Philadelphia
weak TS strong TS Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5 All Fcst Tracks
10-02 Bermuda
10-01
09-30
0 CU CU
500
Tropic Tropic of of Cancer Cancer
1,000
DO DO
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below 1 in 1 - 3 in 3 - 6 in 6 - 9 in 9 - 12 in 12 - 24 in BAMM FcstTrack NHC FcstTrack
Ï! TD Ï! Cat3 Ï! TS Ï! Cat4 Ï! Cat1 Ï! Cat5 Ï! Cat2 D
3
S
4
1
5
2
2,000
Miles
Hazard and damage potential maps produced by Willis are based on numerical modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation.
Warnings, Watches and New Tropical Cyclone Potential A tropical storm watch – meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within the warning area within 48 hours – is in effect for Bermuda.
National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on September 30, 2011
NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation The map to the right illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. No new tropical cyclones are expected in the Atlantic within the next 48 hours. In addition, the NHC continues to forecast weakening for tropical storm Philippe beginning perhaps on Saturday or Sunday.
Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date
Risk Remaining in the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both peak in September, as the graph to the right illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at September 30 is 21.2% for all hurricanes and 16.2% for major hurricanes.
Tropical Storms
2011 year to date (1/1/11 – 9/30/11)
Total Hurricanes
16
2010 year to date (1/1/10 – 9/30/10)
4
2
14
7
5
1995-2010 season average
14.4
7.9
3.8
1950-2010 season average
10.5
6.2
2.7
2011 CSU season forecasts
16
9
5
14-19
7-10
3-5
(Colorado State University at Aug 3)
2011 NOAA season forecasts (NOAAs Climate Prediction Center at Aug 4)
Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 48% 36% 24% 12% 0%
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
All Hurricanes (1-5)
Contact us Roy Cloutier 7760 France Avenue South Minneapolis, MN 55435
[email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652
Cat 3-5 Hurricanes
Average Remaining Risk
For the years 1995-2010, five had sixteen names storms and ten had fourteen named storms. The average dates of the sixteenth and fourteenth named storms in these years are Oct 22 and Oct 20, respectively. Over the same period, Sep 8 and Oct 2 are the average dates of the fourth and seventh hurricanes. And Sep 9 and Oct 9 are the average dates of the second and fifth major hurricanes.
Benchmarking the 2011 Atlantic Season to Date
Average Daily Risk
Tropical Storm Activity to Date Ophelia is the fifteenth named storm and fourth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes and five major hurricanes - Danielle, Earl, Igor, Julia and Karl - had occurred by this date last year. The next tropical storm of 2011 will be named Rina.
Brian Owens 51 Lime Street London EC3M 7DQ
[email protected] +44 (0)20 3124 7637
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Oct
Nov
Dec
Major Hurricanes (3-5)
